Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Rockets MEM @ HOU

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

1-1  |  Road

108
FINAL
Fri, Oct 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

0-0  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
50%
📊
ROCKETS
50%
GRIZZLIES --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Houston)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

47.7%

Rockets Cover

52.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

MEM By 1-7 points

24.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

14.4%

HOU By 1-7 points

25.9%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108.48
MEMPHIS
109.05
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
MEMPHIS
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.5
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MEM @ HOU 101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026 HOU @ MEM 119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026 MEM @ HOU 99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025 HOU @ MEM 124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025 HOU @ MEM 119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +9.5% more
Houston: 49.9 vs Memphis: 45.6
Turnovers (L5) +23.3% more
Memphis: 17.6 vs Houston: 13.5
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Memphis: 28.3 vs Houston: 24.0
Steals (L5) +13.4% more
Memphis: 8.9 vs Houston: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 108.5 108
HOU Score 109.1 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 36.8 39.5 / 35.7
Assists 24.0 / 28.3 20.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.7 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 45.9 43.9 / 41.8
Free Throw % 70.8 / 74.9 69.4 / 61.1
Rebounding 49.9 / 45.6 64.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.7 / 8.9 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 17.6 19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MEM
HOU
MEM
ML
61% 69-44
57% 59-44
59% 51-35
50% 41-41
ATS
62% 70-43
63% 65-38
59% 51-35
50% 41-41
TTL
51% 58-55
70% 71-31-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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