DETROIT
PISTONSDET
1-0 | Road
101
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
0-0 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
50%
CAVALIERS
50%
PISTONS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
202.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
26.9%
DET By 8-14 points
18.9%
CLE By 1-7 points
22.8%
CLE By 8-14 points
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
102.45
DETROIT
Cleveland
100.26
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
DETROIT
Cleveland
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 202.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
CLE @ DET
125 - 94
May 15, 2026
DET @ CLE
115 - 94
May 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
117 - 113
May 11, 2026
DET @ CLE
103 - 112
May 9, 2026
DET @ CLE
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.2% more
Detroit: 16.4
vs
Cleveland: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Detroit: 76.3%
vs
Cleveland: 74.5%
Blocks (L5)
+45.8% more
Cleveland: 6.4
vs
Detroit: 4.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Cleveland: 36.8%
vs
Detroit: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
102.5
101
CLE Score
100.3
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 32.1
38.2 / 40.6
Assists
28.1 / 27.0
28.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.4
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 44.7
51.2 / 46.9
Free Throw %
74.5 / 76.3
69.6 / 70.6
Rebounding
41.8 / 39.6
39.0 / 42.0
Steals
9.2 / 9.3
13.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 16.4
13.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
60%
69-46
55%
64-53
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
60-54-3
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
99-0
100%
96-0
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