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CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

0-1  |  Road

120
FINAL
Fri, Oct 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
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ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

0-1  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
50%
📊
HAWKS
50%
HORNETS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Atlanta)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

16.0%

Hawks Cover

84.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

CHA By 1-7 points

10.8%

CHA By 8-14 points

3.3%

ATL By 1-7 points

23.1%

ATL By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
94.95
CHARLOTTE
104.9
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
CHARLOTTE
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 199.9
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 ATL @ CHA 107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026 CHA @ ATL 126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 ATL @ CHA 126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025 CHA @ ATL 110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025 ATL @ CHA 134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.0% more
Atlanta: 10.2 vs Charlotte: 7.8
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Atlanta: 27.0 vs Charlotte: 23.2
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Atlanta: 80.2% vs Charlotte: 76.7%
Blocks (L5) +33.3% more
Charlotte: 7.7 vs Atlanta: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 95.0 120
ATL Score 104.9 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 38.9 36.8 / 41.2
Assists 27.0 / 23.2 25.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.2 / 7.7 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 44.9 48.1 / 38.5
Free Throw % 80.2 / 76.7 86.8 / 80.6
Rebounding 43.7 / 50.7 39.0 / 53.0
Steals 10.2 / 7.8 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 20.8 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHA
ATL
CHA
ML
50% 52-52
61% 60-39
55% 48-40
48% 40-44
ATS
53% 55-48-1
60% 59-40
55% 48-40
48% 40-44
TTL
53% 55-48-1
58% 57-42
100% 88-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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