Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ Duke UVA @ DUKE

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

3-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 10:35 AM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

4-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
65%
📊
DUKE
35%
VIRGINIA --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Duke)
VirginiaUVA (-3.5) 0 DukeDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

4.3%

Duke Cover

95.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

UVA By 1-6 points

2.5%

UVA By 7-13 points

1.1%

DUKE By 1-6 points

5.9%

DUKE By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
VIRGINIA
31
DUKE
Simulated Score
VIRGINIA
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Duke Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Duke (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 38.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 DUKE @ UVA 27 - 20
Nov 15, 2025 UVA @ DUKE 34 - 17
Nov 18, 2023 DUKE @ UVA 27 - 30
Oct 1, 2022 UVA @ DUKE 17 - 38
Oct 16, 2021 DUKE @ UVA 0 - 48
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +34.7% more
Duke: 24.0 vs Virginia: 17.8
Total Yards (L5) +18.3% more
Duke: 425.4 vs Virginia: 359.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Virginia: 153.2 vs Duke: 132.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 7.0 34
DUKE Score 31.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 17.8 11.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 132.5 / 153.2 42.0 / 224.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.63
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 425.4 / 359.7 255.0 / 540.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
UVA
DUKE
UVA
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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