Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulane @ Memphis TULN @ MEM

TULANE

TULANETULN

2-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 4:10 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

4-1  |  Home

32
Key Game
PaLanding Drammeh
KEY GAME

PaLanding Drammeh

#98 | Defensive Lineman
@
Chauncey Logan Jr.
KEY GAME

Chauncey Logan Jr.

#2 | Cornerback
Player
PaLanding Drammeh None-None
Chauncey Logan Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
35%
📊
MEMPHIS
65%
TULANE --
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
TulaneTULN (-3.5) 0 MemphisMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

23.8%

Memphis Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

TULN By 1-6 points

10.7%

TULN By 7-13 points

7.3%

MEM By 1-6 points

15.3%

MEM By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24
TULANE
34
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
TULANE
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Memphis Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Memphis (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 7, 2025 TULN @ MEM 38 - 32
Nov 28, 2024 MEM @ TULN 34 - 24
Oct 13, 2023 TULN @ MEM 31 - 21
Oct 22, 2022 MEM @ TULN 28 - 38
Nov 27, 2021 TULN @ MEM 28 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Memphis: 159.2 vs Tulane: 144.8
Turnovers (L5) +72.8% more
Tulane: 2.0 vs Memphis: 0.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Tulane: 0.5 vs Memphis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 24.0 38
MEM Score 34.0 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 22.9 23.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 159.2 / 144.8 67.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 409.1 / 415.0 435.0 / 457.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
TULN
MEM
TULN
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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