Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ UCF HOU @ UCF

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

4-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Fri, Nov 7 • 3:15 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

3-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
@
DJ Bell
KEY GAME

DJ Bell

#5 | Defensive Back
Player
Liam Dougherty None-None
DJ Bell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
65%
📊
UCF
35%
HOUSTON --
UCF --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Houston)
HoustonHOU (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

76.2%

UCF Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

15.3%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.7%

UCF By 1-6 points

10.7%

UCF By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
HOUSTON
21
UCF
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Houston Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Houston (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 UCF @ HOU 17 - 27
Nov 7, 2025 HOU @ UCF 30 - 27
Nov 25, 2023 HOU @ UCF 13 - 27
Oct 31, 2020 UCF @ HOU 44 - 21
Nov 2, 2019 HOU @ UCF 29 - 44
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +18.2% more
Houston: 22.9 vs UCF: 18.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs UCF: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.0% more
UCF: 169.4 vs Houston: 144.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 31.0 30
UCF Score 21.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 22.9 14.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 169.4 / 144.8 146.0 / 210.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 384.6 / 390.0 282.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.7 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
HOU
UCF
HOU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 0 minutes ago
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 18 hours ago
Rutgers Crushed by Indiana 47-15 as Schiano Searches for Answers
si 3 days, 5 hours ago
Iowa's Big Ten Championship Hopes Remain Alive Despite Ohio Stat…
yahoo 3 days, 18 hours ago