Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Texans JAX @ HOU

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

3-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Eric Murray
KEY GAME

Eric Murray

#29 | Safety
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Eric Murray None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
50%
📊
TEXANS
50%
JAGUARS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Houston)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

38.2%

Texans Cover

61.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

JAX By 1-6 points

14.6%

JAX By 7-13 points

11.9%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20.36
JACKSONVILLE
24.56
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
JACKSONVILLE
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.9
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 JAX @ HOU 29 - 36
Sep 21, 2025 HOU @ JAX 10 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 HOU @ JAX 23 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 JAX @ HOU 20 - 24
Nov 26, 2023 JAX @ HOU 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.5% more
Houston: 232.2 vs Jacksonville: 186.4
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
Jacksonville: 1.4 vs Houston: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.2% more
Jacksonville: 104.6 vs Houston: 81.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 20.4 20
HOU Score 24.6 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 18.6 26.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 232.2 / 186.4 334.0 / 155.0
Rushing Yards 81.3 / 104.6 101.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 313.5 / 291.0 435.0 / 313.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.8 6.4 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
JAX
HOU
JAX
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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