Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Colts PIT @ IND

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

2-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Sep 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Michael Pittman Jr.
KEY GAME

Michael Pittman Jr.

#11 | Wide Receiver
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Michael Pittman Jr. None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
50%
📊
COLTS
50%
STEELERS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.7
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.7 points (Indianapolis)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

34.3%

Colts Cover

65.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -5.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

PIT By 1-6 points

13.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

10.7%

IND By 1-6 points

16.8%

IND By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17.38
PITTSBURGH
23.04
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
28
PITTSBURGH
23
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.7
D
Sim Steelers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 IND @ PIT 20 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 PIT @ IND 24 - 27
Dec 16, 2023 PIT @ IND 13 - 30
Nov 28, 2022 PIT @ IND 24 - 17
Dec 27, 2020 IND @ PIT 24 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +97.0% more
Indianapolis: 1.7 vs Pittsburgh: 0.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +22.2% more
Indianapolis: 6.0 vs Pittsburgh: 4.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Indianapolis: 141.5 vs Pittsburgh: 128.8
Time of Possession (L5) +14.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.6 vs Indianapolis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 17.4 24
IND Score 23.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 18.4 22.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 180.0 / 181.7 225.0 / 282.0
Rushing Yards 141.5 / 128.8 133.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 321.5 / 310.4 358.0 / 404.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 4.9 5.6 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
PIT
IND
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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