Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Bears LAR @ CHI

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

2-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Sep 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
50%
📊
BEARS
50%
RAMS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Los Angeles)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

80.5%

Bears Cover

19.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

LAR By 1-6 points

14.1%

LAR By 7-13 points

19.5%

CHI By 1-6 points

9.3%

CHI By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
28.86
LOS ANGELES
16.85
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
LOS ANGELES
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.7
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 LAR @ CHI 20 - 17
Sep 29, 2024 LAR @ CHI 18 - 24
Sep 12, 2021 CHI @ LAR 14 - 34
Oct 26, 2020 CHI @ LAR 10 - 24
Nov 17, 2019 CHI @ LAR 7 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.3% more
Los Angeles: 5.5 vs Chicago: 4.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Los Angeles: 235.2 vs Chicago: 200.0
Total Yards (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 323.3 vs Chicago: 291.1
Turnovers (L5) +116.0% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 28.9 18
CHI Score 16.9 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 19.6 17.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 200.0 / 235.2 133.0 / 203.0
Rushing Yards 91.1 / 88.1 131.0 / 119.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 291.1 / 323.3 264.0 / 322.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.1 / 5.5 4.9 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
LAR
CHI
LAR
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 1 hour, 22 minutes ago
Rams' Special Teams Crisis: A 2026 Season Breakdown and How to F…
si 7 hours, 14 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 14 minutes ago
Sean Payton Steps In: Broncos Shake Up Offense After Four Weeks
sportingnews 7 hours, 25 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 13 hours, 36 minutes ago