Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Rams SF @ LAR

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Sep 22 • 4:25 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Demarcus Robinson
KEY GAME

Demarcus Robinson

#11 | Wide Receiver
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Demarcus Robinson None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
50%
📊
RAMS
50%
49ERS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 RamsLAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

72.6%

Rams Cover

27.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

16.0%

SF By 7-13 points

19.6%

LAR By 1-6 points

11.9%

LAR By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
37.26
SAN FRANCISCO
28.83
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
SAN FRANCISCO
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.4
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.1
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 SF @ LAR 27 - 7
Nov 9, 2025 LAR @ SF 42 - 26
Oct 2, 2025 SF @ LAR 26 - 23
Dec 12, 2024 LAR @ SF 12 - 6
Sep 22, 2024 SF @ LAR 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.0% more
San Francisco: 131.9 vs Los Angeles: 83.1
Turnovers (L5) +23.6% more
San Francisco: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +14.2% more
San Francisco: 23.2 vs Los Angeles: 20.0
Total Yards (L5) +14.2% more
San Francisco: 392.5 vs Los Angeles: 336.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 37.3 24
LAR Score 28.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 23.2 19.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 253.8 / 260.5 198.0 / 288.0
Rushing Yards 83.1 / 131.9 98.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 336.9 / 392.5 296.0 / 425.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.9 5.4 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
SF
LAR
SF
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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