Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Steelers LAC @ PIT

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

2-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Donte Jackson
KEY GAME

Donte Jackson

#26 | Cornerback
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Donte Jackson None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
50%
📊
STEELERS
50%
CHARGERS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
78.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

54.6%

Steelers Cover

45.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.8%

LAC By 7-13 points

16.6%

PIT By 1-6 points

15.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
40.06
LOS ANGELES
38.45
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
24
LOS ANGELES
17
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim Chargers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 78.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 PIT @ LAC 10 - 25
Sep 22, 2024 LAC @ PIT 10 - 20
Nov 21, 2021 PIT @ LAC 37 - 41
Oct 13, 2019 PIT @ LAC 24 - 17
Dec 2, 2018 LAC @ PIT 33 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.4% more
Los Angeles: 1.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Los Angeles: 155.4 vs Pittsburgh: 136.2
Total Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Los Angeles: 326.7 vs Pittsburgh: 292.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.7% more
Los Angeles: 171.4 vs Pittsburgh: 156.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 40.1 10
PIT Score 38.5 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 17.8 20.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 156.5 / 171.4 232.0 / 105.0
Rushing Yards 136.2 / 155.4 114.0 / 61.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 292.7 / 326.7 346.0 / 166.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.1 5.3 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAC
PIT
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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