Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Vikings HOU @ MIN

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Sep 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

4-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
50%
📊
VIKINGS
50%
TEXANS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

47.3%

Vikings Cover

52.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.1%

HOU By 7-13 points

14.6%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
45.32
HOUSTON
46.28
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.6
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 22, 2024 HOU @ MIN 7 - 34
Oct 4, 2020 MIN @ HOU 31 - 23
Oct 9, 2016 HOU @ MIN 13 - 31
Dec 23, 2012 MIN @ HOU 23 - 6
Nov 2, 2008 HOU @ MIN 21 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +167.0% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs Houston: 0.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.0% more
Minnesota: 6.4 vs Houston: 5.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Minnesota: 250.4 vs Houston: 219.3
Total Yards (L5) +12.1% more
Minnesota: 361.2 vs Houston: 322.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 45.3 7
MIN Score 46.3 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 17.2 19.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 250.4 / 219.3 156.0 / 258.0
Rushing Yards 110.8 / 103.0 118.0 / 38.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 361.2 / 322.3 274.0 / 296.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.4 / 5.4 4.6 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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