Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Colts CHI @ IND

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Sep 22 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Dayo Odeyingbo
KEY GAME

Dayo Odeyingbo

#55 | Defensive End
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Dayo Odeyingbo None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
50%
📊
COLTS
50%
BEARS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.1
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Indianapolis)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

30.5%

Colts Cover

69.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -7.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

CHI By 1-6 points

12.8%

CHI By 7-13 points

9.5%

IND By 1-6 points

16.4%

IND By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24.03
CHICAGO
31.16
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
CHICAGO
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.1
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.2
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 22, 2024 CHI @ IND 16 - 21
Oct 4, 2020 IND @ CHI 19 - 11
Oct 9, 2016 CHI @ IND 23 - 29
Sep 9, 2012 IND @ CHI 21 - 41
Sep 7, 2008 CHI @ IND 29 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +59.1% more
Indianapolis: 6.1 vs Chicago: 3.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +43.3% more
Indianapolis: 192.0 vs Chicago: 133.9
Total Yards (L5) +37.7% more
Indianapolis: 329.3 vs Chicago: 239.1
Turnovers (L5) +33.9% more
Indianapolis: 1.6 vs Chicago: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 24.0 16
IND Score 31.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 15.3 15.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 192.0 / 133.9 156.0 / 332.0
Rushing Yards 137.3 / 105.1 150.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.25 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 329.3 / 239.1 306.0 / 395.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 3.9 5.7 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
IND
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHI
IND
CHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 1 hour, 21 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 14 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 13 hours, 35 minutes ago
Commanders' Chig Okonkwo Not Fading Away Yet Despite Early Seaso…
yahoo 19 hours, 40 minutes ago
Brian Branch's Return to Practice Could Be the Spark Detroit's D…
yahoo 19 hours, 56 minutes ago