Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Texans CHI @ HOU

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 15 • 8:20 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-4  |  Home

19
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
50%
📊
TEXANS
50%
BEARS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Houston)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

44.5%

Texans Cover

55.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

CHI By 1-6 points

15.8%

CHI By 7-13 points

13.8%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
22.99
CHICAGO
24.92
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
CHICAGO
24
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.9
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2024 CHI @ HOU 13 - 19
Sep 25, 2022 HOU @ CHI 20 - 23
Dec 13, 2020 HOU @ CHI 7 - 36
Sep 11, 2016 CHI @ HOU 14 - 23
Nov 11, 2012 HOU @ CHI 13 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +57.9% more
Houston: 211.4 vs Chicago: 133.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.4% more
Houston: 5.5 vs Chicago: 4.3
Total Yards (L5) +28.2% more
Houston: 328.4 vs Chicago: 256.1
First Downs (L5) +18.5% more
Houston: 18.3 vs Chicago: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 23.0 13
HOU Score 24.9 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 15.4 15.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 211.4 / 133.9 235.0 / 134.0
Rushing Yards 117.0 / 122.2 75.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 328.4 / 256.1 310.0 / 205.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.3 5.1 / 3.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHI
HOU
CHI
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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