Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Panthers LAC @ CAR

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-4  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Sep 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

2-2  |  Home

3
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Feleipe Franks
KEY GAME

Feleipe Franks

#81 | Tight End
Player
JK Scott None-None
Feleipe Franks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
50%
📊
PANTHERS
50%
CHARGERS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

61.1%

Panthers Cover

38.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

18.0%

CAR By 1-6 points

14.8%

CAR By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
15.63
LOS ANGELES
11.67
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
LOS ANGELES
27
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chargers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2024 LAC @ CAR 26 - 3
Sep 27, 2020 CAR @ LAC 21 - 16
Dec 11, 2016 LAC @ CAR 16 - 28
Dec 16, 2012 CAR @ LAC 31 - 7
Sep 7, 2008 CAR @ LAC 26 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
Los Angeles: 192.1 vs Carolina: 127.0
Total Yards (L5) +30.3% more
Los Angeles: 315.6 vs Carolina: 220.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.6% more
Los Angeles: 123.5 vs Carolina: 93.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.9% more
Los Angeles: 5.0 vs Carolina: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 15.6 26
CAR Score 11.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.0 / 16.2 7.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 127.0 / 192.1 69.0 / 130.0
Rushing Yards 93.1 / 123.5 90.0 / 219.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.08 / 0.56
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.6
Total Yards 220.1 / 315.6 159.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 3.8 / 5.0 3.5 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
LAC
CAR
LAC
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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