Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Vikings SF @ MIN

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Sep 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

4-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Dominick Puni
KEY GAME

Dominick Puni

#77 | Guard
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Dominick Puni None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
50%
📊
VIKINGS
50%
49ERS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

69.1%

Vikings Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

16.5%

SF By 7-13 points

19.3%

MIN By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29.34
SAN FRANCISCO
22.36
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
17
SAN FRANCISCO
27
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 15, 2024 SF @ MIN 17 - 23
Oct 23, 2023 SF @ MIN 17 - 22
Nov 28, 2021 MIN @ SF 26 - 34
Jan 11, 2020 MIN @ SF 10 - 27
Sep 9, 2018 SF @ MIN 16 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.5% more
San Francisco: 146.9 vs Minnesota: 93.3
First Downs (L5) +17.9% more
San Francisco: 22.9 vs Minnesota: 18.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
San Francisco: 0.4 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +12.9% more
San Francisco: 390.7 vs Minnesota: 340.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 29.3 17
MIN Score 22.4 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 22.9 17.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 247.0 / 243.8 257.0 / 294.0
Rushing Yards 93.3 / 146.9 146.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 340.3 / 390.7 403.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.8 7.5 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
MIN
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SF
MIN
SF
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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