Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Colts HOU @ IND

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-4  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Sep 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
E.J. Speed
KEY GAME

E.J. Speed

#45 | Linebacker
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
E.J. Speed None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
50%
📊
COLTS
50%
TEXANS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
99.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.9
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.9 points (Indianapolis)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

16.1%

Colts Cover

83.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -13.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

HOU By 1-6 points

8.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

4.8%

IND By 1-6 points

13.0%

IND By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42.92
HOUSTON
56.77
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.9
D
Sim Colts (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 99.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ IND 17 - 19
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ HOU 30 - 38
Nov 30, 2025 HOU @ IND 20 - 16
Oct 27, 2024 IND @ HOU 20 - 23
Sep 8, 2024 HOU @ IND 29 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +120.3% more
Indianapolis: 151.9 vs Houston: 69.0
Turnovers (L5) +59.0% more
Indianapolis: 0.8 vs Houston: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +33.3% more
Indianapolis: 19.2 vs Houston: 14.4
Total Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Indianapolis: 335.8 vs Houston: 284.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 42.9 29
IND Score 56.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 14.4 14.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 183.9 / 215.1 199.0 / 204.0
Rushing Yards 151.9 / 69.0 104.0 / 213.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 335.8 / 284.1 303.0 / 417.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.5 7.0 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
HOU
IND
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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