Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Bears TEN @ CHI

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Sep 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

3-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jaylon Jones
KEY GAME

Jaylon Jones

#42 | Cornerback
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Jaylon Jones None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
50%
📊
BEARS
50%
TITANS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
106.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.4 points (Chicago)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

17.0%

Bears Cover

83.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -13.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

TEN By 1-6 points

8.3%

TEN By 7-13 points

5.0%

CHI By 1-6 points

13.3%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
46.57
TENNESSEE
59.95
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
23
TENNESSEE
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.4
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 106.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 CHI @ TEN 24 - 15
Sep 8, 2024 TEN @ CHI 17 - 24
Nov 8, 2020 CHI @ TEN 17 - 24
Nov 27, 2016 TEN @ CHI 27 - 21
Nov 4, 2012 CHI @ TEN 51 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Chicago: 141.3 vs Tennessee: 121.7
Total Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Chicago: 310.2 vs Tennessee: 279.9
Turnovers (L5) +34.3% more
Tennessee: 1.0 vs Chicago: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 46.6 17
CHI Score 60.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 17.5 11.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 168.9 / 158.3 64.0 / 104.0
Rushing Yards 141.3 / 121.7 84.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 310.2 / 279.9 148.0 / 244.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.8 2.8 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
TEN
CHI
TEN
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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