Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Falcons PIT @ ATL

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

2-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Sep 8 • 1:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

2-2  |  Home

10
Key Game
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
@
JD Bertrand
KEY GAME

JD Bertrand

#40 | Linebacker
Player
Cameron Johnston None-None
JD Bertrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
50%
📊
FALCONS
50%
STEELERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

69.4%

Falcons Cover

30.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -7.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

16.4%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.3%

ATL By 1-6 points

12.8%

ATL By 7-13 points

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
25.51
PITTSBURGH
18.4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
23
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.1
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 ATL @ PIT 13 - 20
Sep 8, 2024 PIT @ ATL 18 - 10
Dec 4, 2022 PIT @ ATL 19 - 16
Oct 7, 2018 ATL @ PIT 17 - 41
Dec 14, 2014 PIT @ ATL 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Pittsburgh: 132.1 vs Atlanta: 112.5
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
Pittsburgh: 19.4 vs Atlanta: 16.6
Turnovers (L5) +62.4% more
Atlanta: 2.3 vs Pittsburgh: 1.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Atlanta: 233.6 vs Pittsburgh: 203.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 25.5 18
ATL Score 18.4 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 19.4 15.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 233.6 / 203.1 137.0 / 133.0
Rushing Yards 112.5 / 132.1 89.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 346.1 / 335.2 226.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.4 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.3 4.5 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PIT
ATL
PIT
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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