SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
31-43 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
37-38 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Smith
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Smith | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 6.43 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
6.43
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
40%
MARLINS
60%
GIANTS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Miami
3
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Giants (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
SF @ MIA
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
SF @ MIA
3 - 6
Jun 19, 2026
SF @ MIA
3 - 4
Apr 26, 2026
MIA @ SF
3 - 6
Apr 25, 2026
MIA @ SF
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.706
OPS
▲
.727
178
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+60.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
San Francisco: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+11.3% more
Miami: 2.8
vs
San Francisco: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.8% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.1%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.0
3
MIA Score
5.0
4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SF
MIA
SF
ML
48%
78-84
49%
79-81
55%
88-72
53%
85-75
ATS
56%
91-71
62%
100-60
54%
86-74
52%
83-77
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
82-68-10
53%
82-73-5
46%
68-81-11
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