TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
36-38 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
29-42 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.64 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.83 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.64
ERA
Ldr 0.83
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
71%
RED SOX
29%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Boston
6
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
29% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+65.6% more
Toronto: 5.4
vs
Boston: 1.9
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
4
BOS Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 8.2
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.6
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 13.9
13.0 / 20.0
Walks
1.9 / 5.4
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer