ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
40-32 | Road
6
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
30-45 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Bruihl
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Beck Way
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Bruihl | None-None | 4.41 | -- | 2.2 | 2 |
| Beck Way | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.41 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
2.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
60%
ROYALS
40%
CARDINALS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
STL By 1-2 runs
10.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
5.4%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.4%
KC By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
STL @ KC
12 - 10
Jun 19, 2026
STL @ KC
5 - 6
Jun 18, 2026
STL @ KC
6 - 14
May 17, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 0
May 16, 2026
KC @ STL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.718
167
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+98.0% more
Kansas City: 1.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+61.9% more
Kansas City: 17.7
vs
St. Louis: 10.9
Hits (L5)
+33.6% more
Kansas City: 10.5
vs
St. Louis: 7.8
Walks (L5)
+14.7% more
Kansas City: 2.6
vs
St. Louis: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.0
6
KC Score
8.0
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.5 / 7.8
17.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.7
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.0 / 8.2
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 10.9
34.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.2
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
STL
KC
STL
ML
55%
89-72
53%
85-74
56%
90-70
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
58%
93-67
53%
85-76
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-70-7
50%
76-75-10
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