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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

38-34  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Jun 18 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

45-27  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Burke None-None 3.89 -- 7.1 8
Tim Hill None-None 4.55 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.89 Ldr ERA 4.55
-- WHIP --
7.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
29%
📊
YANKEES
71%
WHITE SOX --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CHICAGO
7
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
C
Sim u10.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 NYY @ CHW 1 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 NYY @ CHW 5 - 6
Jul 28, 2026 NYY @ CHW 3 - 2
Jul 27, 2026 NYY @ CHW 9 - 5
Jun 18, 2026 CHW @ NYY 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
New York NYY
1
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.324
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.415
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.826
OPS
▲ 1.041
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +53.6% more
New York: 11.8 vs Chicago: 7.7
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Chicago: 6.0
Total Bases (L5) +49.8% more
New York: 22.4 vs Chicago: 15.0
Home Runs (L5) +33.2% more
New York: 2.6 vs Chicago: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 6.0 5
NYY Score 7.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.8 / 7.7 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.6 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 22.4 / 15.0 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CHW
NYY
CHW
ML
47% 76-85
49% 81-86
52% 85-77
56% 94-73
ATS
59% 95-66
59% 99-68
53% 86-76
56% 93-74
TTL
53% 81-73-7
58% 96-69-2
53% 82-72-7
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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