NEW YORK
METSNYM
33-41 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
40-34 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 4.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 6.58 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.81 Ldr
ERA
6.58
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
45%
PHILLIES
55%
METS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.705
OPS
▲
.724
204
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+53.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.2
vs
New York: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
New York: 0.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
New York: 39.5%
OPS (Season)
+1.9%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
6
PHI Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.4 / 10.1
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.1
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 14.3
11.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59%
97-67
50%
79-80
49%
80-84
48%
76-83
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-66
51%
83-81
49%
78-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-76-9
51%
74-72-13
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