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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

37-35  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

40-31  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Morejon
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Morejon

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Bruihl
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Bruihl

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Morejon None-None 3.89 -- 1.0 --
Justin Bruihl None-None 4.50 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.89 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
33%
📊
CARDINALS
67%
PADRES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 28%
Under 0 72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (St. Louis)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.9%

Cardinals Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SAN DIEGO
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.925 ▲
OPS
.691
4
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4075.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Hits (L5) +60.5% more
St. Louis: 8.7 vs San Diego: 5.4
Total Bases (L5) +50.7% more
St. Louis: 13.4 vs San Diego: 8.9
Strikeouts (L5) +31.6% more
St. Louis: 7.8 vs San Diego: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 2.0 6
STL Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 5.4 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 6.0 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 8.9 6.0 / 20.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SD
STL
SD
ML
53% 85-74
51% 85-83
52% 84-77
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 91-77
53% 85-76
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 68-81-10
51% 82-80-6
50% 76-75-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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