Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Brewers CLE @ MIL

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

39-34  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 7:40 PM ET
American Family Field
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

44-26  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Gavin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Williams

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gavin Williams None-None 3.83 -- 5.0 4
Grant Anderson None-None 2.67 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.83 ERA Ldr 2.67
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
27%
📊
BREWERS
73%
GUARDIANS --
BREWERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 BrewersMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Brewers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CLEVELAND
7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
6
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Brewers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 18, 2026 CLE @ MIL 4 - 2
Jun 17, 2026 CLE @ MIL 4 - 9
Jun 16, 2026 CLE @ MIL 1 - 2
May 14, 2025 MIL @ CLE 9 - 5
May 13, 2025 MIL @ CLE 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Milwaukee MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .341
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.696
OPS
▲ .743
162 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +161.0% more
Milwaukee: 2.1 vs Cleveland: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +65.0% more
Milwaukee: 15.9 vs Cleveland: 9.6
Strikeouts (L5) +37.8% more
Milwaukee: 10.5 vs Cleveland: 7.6
Hits (L5) +27.5% more
Milwaukee: 8.5 vs Cleveland: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 6.0 4
MIL Score 7.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 6.6 11.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 7.6 13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 9.6 20.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CLE
MIL
CLE
ML
62% 101-61
54% 87-74
52% 84-78
49% 80-82
ATS
58% 94-68
58% 93-68
48% 78-84
59% 95-67
TTL
40% 62-92-8
55% 88-71-2
50% 77-77-8
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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