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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

37-37  |  Road

12
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 9:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

36-37  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Braxton Ashcraft
STARTING PITCHER

Braxton Ashcraft

#35 | Starting Pitcher
@
Luis Medina
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Medina

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Braxton Ashcraft None-None 3.18 -- 6.0 7
Luis Medina None-None 4.54 -- 3.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.18 Ldr ERA 4.54
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 6
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
38%
📊
ATHLETICS
63%
PIRATES --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

30.9%

Athletics Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PITTSBURGH
6
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 PIT @ ATH 12 - 4
Jun 16, 2026 PIT @ ATH 6 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 PIT @ ATH 2 - 11
Sep 21, 2025 ATH @ PIT 0 - 11
Sep 20, 2025 ATH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734 ▲
OPS
.719
186
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +26.0% more
Athletics: 20.0 vs Pittsburgh: 15.8
Hits (L5) +20.1% more
Athletics: 11.3 vs Pittsburgh: 9.4
Home Runs (L5) +14.3% more
Athletics: 2.0 vs Pittsburgh: 1.8
Home Runs (Season) +4.3% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.0 12
ATH Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.3 / 9.4 6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 10.4 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 20.0 / 15.8 12.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.3 / 4.3 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
PIT
ATH
PIT
ML
59% 95-67
52% 82-77
54% 87-74
52% 85-78
ATS
52% 84-78
54% 86-73
50% 81-80
50% 81-82
TTL
54% 84-73-5
47% 72-81-6
42% 66-90-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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