BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
34-40 | Road
5
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
38-36 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Hoppe
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Rucker
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Hoppe | None-None | 5.57 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Michael Rucker | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.57 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
40%
MARINERS
60%
ORIOLES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Seattle
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
BAL @ SEA
0 - 3
Jun 17, 2026
BAL @ SEA
5 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
BAL @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2026
SEA @ BAL
5 - 7
Jun 10, 2026
SEA @ BAL
2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Seattle
SEA
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.314
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.711
▲
OPS
.693
199
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+71.7% more
Seattle: 9.2
vs
Baltimore: 5.4
Walks (L5)
+57.4% more
Baltimore: 4.6
vs
Seattle: 2.0
Total Bases (L5)
+14.3% more
Baltimore: 11.5
vs
Seattle: 9.8
Home Runs (L5)
+13.0% more
Baltimore: 0.9
vs
Seattle: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.0
5
SEA Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.0 / 7.1
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 5.4
9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 11.5
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BAL
SEA
BAL
ML
50%
81-81
53%
83-73
52%
85-77
57%
90-69
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-67
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-75-6
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