NEW YORK
METSNYM
32-41 | Road
9
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
35-37 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | None-None | 3.67 | -- | 7.0 | 9 |
| Nick Lodolo | None-None | 6.12 | -- | 4.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.67 Ldr
ERA
6.12
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
REDS
58%
METS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
NYM @ CIN
9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
NYM @ CIN
3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
NYM @ CIN
0 - 12
May 27, 2026
CIN @ NYM
2 - 4
May 26, 2026
CIN @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.705
▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+10.1% more
New York: 7.7
vs
Cincinnati: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.6% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
New York: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
OPS (Season)
+0.6%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
9
CIN Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.7
5.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 9.1
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 12.0
9.0 / 19.0
Walks
5.1 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYM
CIN
NYM
ML
55%
88-71
50%
79-80
49%
79-81
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
80-80
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
80-66-13
54%
83-72-5
51%
74-72-13
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