MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
36-38 | Road
12
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
40-33 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
John King
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John King | None-None | 2.32 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 3.28 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.32 Ldr
ERA
3.28
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
PHILLIES
54%
MARLINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
6
MIAMI
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+108.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.9
vs
Miami: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+27.8% more
Philadelphia: 14.5
vs
Miami: 11.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.9% more
Philadelphia: 10.1
vs
Miami: 8.1
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
Miami: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.0
12
PHI Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.3
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 8.1
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 11.4
11.0 / 31.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.7
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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