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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

41-29  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 3:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

47-27  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Kelly None-None 2.70 -- 1.2 1
Alex Vesia None-None 2.59 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 ERA Ldr 2.59
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
33%
📊
DODGERS
67%
RAYS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 73%
Under 0 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
TAMPA BAY
6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 TB @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 16, 2026 TB @ LAD 0 - 1
Jun 15, 2026 TB @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 3, 2025 LAD @ TB 3 - 0
Aug 2, 2025 LAD @ TB 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.728
OPS
▲ .762
169
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +80.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +33.0% more
Los Angeles: 13.0 vs Tampa Bay: 9.8
Home Runs (Season) +20.7% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 5.0 4
LAD Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 6.7 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.3 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 9.8 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.0 / 1.9 4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
TB
LAD
TB
ML
56% 92-73
58% 95-68
48% 79-87
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 98-67
60% 97-66
43% 72-94
55% 90-73
TTL
48% 77-82-6
47% 73-81-9
44% 70-90-6
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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