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SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

30-43  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

46-26  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Smith None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Reynaldo Lopez None-None 3.76 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
59%
📊
BRAVES
41%
GIANTS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 27%
Under 0 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Braves Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Giants (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.706
OPS
▲ .757
178 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +37.1% more
Atlanta: 3.7 vs San Francisco: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season) +21.1% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Errors (L5) +8.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6 vs San Francisco: 0.5
OPS (Season) +5.1%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.0 7
ATL Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 9.0 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.4 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 16.0 16.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SF
ATL
SF
ML
46% 77-90
49% 79-81
54% 90-78
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 96-71
62% 100-60
52% 87-81
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 83-73-11
55% 82-68-10
49% 76-80-11
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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