Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Diamondbacks LAA @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

30-44  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 3:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

37-36  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 4.76 -- 1.0 --
Juan Morillo None-None 2.48 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.76 ERA Ldr 2.48
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
58%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
ANGELS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

77.3%

Diamondbacks Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

19.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

10.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LOS ANGELES
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 LAA @ ARI 1 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 LAA @ ARI 7 - 0
Jun 15, 2026 LAA @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 13, 2025 ARI @ LAA 5 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 ARI @ LAA 5 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .720
154
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +50.7% more
Los Angeles: 18.8 vs Arizona: 9.3
Errors (L5) +48.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.2
Hits (L5) +45.0% more
Los Angeles: 11.0 vs Arizona: 6.1
Home Runs (L5) +43.7% more
Los Angeles: 1.5 vs Arizona: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 6.0 1
ARI Score 3.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.1 / 11.0 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.2 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 9.3 / 18.8 19.0 / 11.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.9 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAA
ARI
LAA
ML
54% 87-74
59% 96-66
54% 86-74
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-65
56% 89-71
51% 82-80
TTL
52% 80-73-8
53% 83-74-5
49% 73-77-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 1 hour, 43 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 7 hours, 32 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 13 hours, 39 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 39 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 19 hours, 43 minutes ago