Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Nationals KC @ WSH

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

29-45  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Jun 17 • 1:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

39-35  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Zack Littell
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Littell

#18 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Lange None-None 4.01 -- 1.0 --
Zack Littell None-None 5.45 -- 5.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.01 Ldr ERA 5.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
29%
📊
NATIONALS
71%
ROYALS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Washington)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

15.9%

Nationals Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

KC By 1-2 runs

7.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

3.5%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
KANSAS CITY
7
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Loss
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 KC @ WSH 6 - 2
Jun 16, 2026 KC @ WSH 4 - 6
Jun 15, 2026 KC @ WSH 3 - 7
Aug 13, 2025 WSH @ KC 8 - 7
Aug 12, 2025 WSH @ KC 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.718
OPS
▲ .744
170
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +76.0% more
Washington: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +67.9% more
Washington: 7.5 vs Kansas City: 4.5
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
Washington: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +28.5% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Kansas City: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.0 6
WSH Score 7.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.7 / 9.7 6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 4.5 3.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.7 / 13.0 7.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.4 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
KC
WSH
KC
ML
57% 92-69
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
TTL
50% 77-78-6
58% 90-64-7
42% 65-90-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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