PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
36-37 | Road
6
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
36-36 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 5.63 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.16 Ldr
ERA
5.63
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
27%
ATHLETICS
73%
PIRATES
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Athletics
7
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o10.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
PIT @ ATH
12 - 4
Jun 16, 2026
PIT @ ATH
6 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
PIT @ ATH
2 - 11
Sep 21, 2025
ATH @ PIT
0 - 11
Sep 20, 2025
ATH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.719
186
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+121.2% more
Athletics: 2.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+83.7% more
Athletics: 23.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.8
Hits (L5)
+59.7% more
Athletics: 12.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.1
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Athletics: 0.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
6
ATH Score
7.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
12.9 / 8.1
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.5 / 1.1
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.1
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
23.4 / 12.8
13.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.4
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
PIT
ATH
PIT
ML
59%
95-67
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
ATS
52%
84-78
54%
86-73
50%
81-80
50%
81-82
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
72-81-6
42%
66-90-5
50%
79-78-6
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