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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

27-46  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jun 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

38-35  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brennan Bernardino
STARTING PITCHER

Brennan Bernardino

#83 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gavin Hollowell
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Hollowell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brennan Bernardino None-None 3.99 -- 1.0 --
Gavin Hollowell None-None 6.75 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.99 Ldr ERA 6.75
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
43%
📊
CUBS
57%
ROCKIES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 41%
Under 0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

69.1%

Cubs Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CHC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
COLORADO
3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
6
COLORADO
7
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 COL @ CHC 6 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 COL @ CHC 5 - 2
Jun 15, 2026 COL @ CHC 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 CHC @ COL 9 - 3
Jun 10, 2026 CHC @ COL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.739 ▲
OPS
.374
180 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +89.2% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +52.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +46.7% more
Colorado: 2.3 vs Chicago: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 5.0 5
CHC Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 11.5 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 6.8 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 21.6 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.8 / 5.0 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
COL
CHC
COL
ML
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
51% 82-79
55% 88-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
60% 97-64
47% 75-85-1
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 81-74-6
60% 93-62-6
46% 72-83-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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