MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
34-40 | Road
12
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
35-37 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Travis Adams
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Adams | None-None | 6.48 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Tyler Alexander | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.48
ERA
Ldr 3.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
55%
RANGERS
45%
TWINS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Texas
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
TEX @ MIN
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
TEX @ MIN
6 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
TEX @ MIN
2 - 10
Jun 18, 2026
MIN @ TEX
9 - 3
Jun 16, 2026
MIN @ TEX
12 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.720
▲
OPS
.713
187
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+8.8% more
Texas: 8.6
vs
Minnesota: 7.9
Home Runs (L5)
+43.0% more
Minnesota: 2.0
vs
Texas: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+15.5% more
Minnesota: 15.7
vs
Texas: 13.2
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Minnesota: 0.4
vs
Texas: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
12
TEX Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.9
8.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.4
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 15.7
10.0 / 29.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MIN
TEX
MIN
ML
53%
86-76
52%
84-78
57%
91-70
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
59%
95-66
TTL
53%
78-70-14
51%
78-75-9
55%
81-66-14
53%
80-72-9
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