Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Nationals KC @ WSH

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

29-44  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

38-35  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.61 -- 1.0 1
Orlando Ribalta None-None 2.66 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.61 Ldr ERA 2.66
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
32%
📊
NATIONALS
68%
ROYALS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
KANSAS CITY
6
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 KC @ WSH 6 - 2
Jun 16, 2026 KC @ WSH 4 - 6
Jun 15, 2026 KC @ WSH 3 - 7
Aug 13, 2025 WSH @ KC 8 - 7
Aug 12, 2025 WSH @ KC 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.718
OPS
▲ .744
170
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +114.0% more
Washington: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +54.5% more
Washington: 7.3 vs Kansas City: 4.7
Total Bases (L5) +28.7% more
Washington: 16.1 vs Kansas City: 12.5
Home Runs (Season) +23.5% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.0 4
WSH Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 9.5 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 4.7 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 12.5 18.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.0 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
1%MONEY99%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
KC
WSH
KC
ML
57% 92-69
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
TTL
50% 77-78-6
58% 90-64-7
42% 65-90-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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