DETROIT
TIGERSDET
30-42 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
33-41 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Sommers
#51 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Sommers | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
ASTROS
41%
TIGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
181
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+35.1% more
Detroit: 2.9
vs
Houston: 1.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5)
+26.4% more
Detroit: 19.2
vs
Houston: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.0
2
HOU Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.8
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 2.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.2 / 8.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 19.2
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.3
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
50%
81-82
54%
86-73
47%
77-87
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
91-72
64%
101-58
55%
90-74
57%
91-69
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-9
45%
69-86-9
46%
69-81-10
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