Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Braves SF @ ATL

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

29-43  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Jun 16 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

46-25  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Smith None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Reynaldo Lopez None-None 3.76 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
50%
📊
BRAVES
50%
GIANTS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Braves Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Push
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.706
OPS
▲ .757
178 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +28.6% more
San Francisco: 14.0 vs Atlanta: 10.0
Home Runs (L5) +23.9% more
San Francisco: 1.1 vs Atlanta: 0.8
Hits (L5) +23.2% more
San Francisco: 8.5 vs Atlanta: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 6.0 7
ATL Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.5 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.1 4.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 14.0 11.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
98%MONEY2%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SF
ATL
SF
ML
46% 77-90
49% 79-81
54% 90-78
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 96-71
62% 100-60
52% 87-81
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 83-73-11
55% 82-68-10
49% 76-80-11
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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