CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
39-33 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
43-26 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.15
ERA
4.15
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
40%
BREWERS
60%
GUARDIANS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Milwaukee
7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 18, 2026
CLE @ MIL
4 - 2
Jun 17, 2026
CLE @ MIL
4 - 9
Jun 16, 2026
CLE @ MIL
1 - 2
May 14, 2025
MIL @ CLE
9 - 5
May 13, 2025
MIL @ CLE
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.696
OPS
▲
.743
162
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+142.0% more
Milwaukee: 2.1
vs
Cleveland: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+57.8% more
Milwaukee: 18.9
vs
Cleveland: 12.0
Hits (L5)
+34.4% more
Milwaukee: 10.7
vs
Cleveland: 7.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
6.0
1
MIL Score
7.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.7 / 7.9
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 8.9
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
18.9 / 12.0
10.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.6 / 3.1
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CLE
MIL
CLE
ML
62%
101-61
54%
87-75
52%
84-78
49%
80-83
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
93-69
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
TTL
40%
62-92-8
56%
89-71-2
50%
77-77-8
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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