NEW YORK
METSNYM
32-40 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
34-37 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cionel Perez
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tejay Antone
#70 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cionel Perez | None-None | 5.18 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tejay Antone | None-None | 3.06 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.18
ERA
Ldr 3.06
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
55%
REDS
45%
METS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
NYM By 1-2 runs
10.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
5.4%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
NYM @ CIN
9 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
NYM @ CIN
3 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
NYM @ CIN
0 - 12
May 27, 2026
CIN @ NYM
2 - 4
May 26, 2026
CIN @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.705
▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+86.2% more
Cincinnati: 2.0
vs
New York: 1.1
Walks (L5)
+42.6% more
Cincinnati: 4.7
vs
New York: 3.3
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.7% more
Cincinnati: 8.7
vs
New York: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.0
3
CIN Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.1
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.1
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 13.0
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.3
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYM
CIN
NYM
ML
55%
88-71
50%
79-80
49%
79-81
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
80-80
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
80-66-13
54%
83-72-5
51%
74-72-13
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