CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
38-32 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
43-27 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Murphy
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Murphy | None-None | 6.55 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 3.08 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.55
ERA
Ldr 3.08
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
45%
YANKEES
55%
WHITE SOX
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 30, 2026
NYY @ CHW
1 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
NYY @ CHW
5 - 6
Jul 28, 2026
NYY @ CHW
3 - 2
Jul 27, 2026
NYY @ CHW
9 - 5
Jun 18, 2026
CHW @ NYY
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
New York
NYY
1
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.324
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.415
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.826
OPS
▲
1.041
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Chicago: 6.0
Hits (L5)
+25.6% more
New York: 8.9
vs
Chicago: 7.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+18.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Chicago: 41.2%
Total Bases (L5)
+14.9% more
New York: 15.7
vs
Chicago: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.0
2
NYY Score
5.0
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.1
16.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.7
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.8
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 13.7
29.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.2 / 5.0
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CHW
NYY
CHW
ML
47%
76-85
49%
81-86
52%
85-77
56%
94-73
ATS
59%
95-66
59%
99-68
53%
86-76
56%
93-74
TTL
53%
81-73-7
58%
96-69-2
53%
82-72-7
51%
84-81-2
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