MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
36-37 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
39-33 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
John King
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John King | None-None | 2.40 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.20 | -- | 7.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.40 Ldr
ERA
4.20
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
50%
PHILLIES
50%
MARLINS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.727
▲
OPS
.724
168
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.3
vs
Miami: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.8
vs
Miami: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+20.1% more
Philadelphia: 13.3
vs
Miami: 11.1
Hits (L5)
+14.2% more
Philadelphia: 8.4
vs
Miami: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.0
2
PHI Score
5.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.4
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.7
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.7
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 11.1
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.5
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
59%
97-67
48%
78-84
49%
80-84
55%
88-72
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-71
51%
83-81
54%
86-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-73-5
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