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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

27-45  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Jun 15 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

37-35  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Mejia None-None 6.19 -- 0.1 1
Caleb Thielbar None-None 4.26 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.19 ERA Ldr 4.26
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
46%
📊
CUBS
54%
ROCKIES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

40.1%

Cubs Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

COL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
COLORADO
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
5
COLORADO
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockies Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 COL @ CHC 6 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 COL @ CHC 5 - 2
Jun 15, 2026 COL @ CHC 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 CHC @ COL 9 - 3
Jun 10, 2026 CHC @ COL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.739 ▲
OPS
.374
180 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +89.2% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +55.0% more
Colorado: 2.9 vs Chicago: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +48.1% more
Colorado: 27.5 vs Chicago: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 5.0 4
CHC Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 13.8 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 6.3 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 27.5 18.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.0 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
1%MONEY99%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
COL
CHC
COL
ML
58% 93-68
60% 97-64
51% 82-79
55% 88-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
60% 97-64
47% 75-85-1
52% 83-78
TTL
52% 81-74-6
60% 93-62-6
46% 72-83-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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