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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

37-33  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Jun 15 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

38-31  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Hart
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Hart

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nathan Church
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Church

#27 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Hart None-None 4.82 -- 2.0 1
Nathan Church None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.82 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
40%
📊
CARDINALS
60%
PADRES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

69.1%

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAN DIEGO
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.925 ▲
OPS
.691
4
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +26.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season) +23.4%
San Diego: 92.5% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Strikeouts (L5) +22.2% more
San Diego: 9.2 vs St. Louis: 7.1
Slugging Pct (Season) +18.5%
San Diego: 56.3% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.0 0
STL Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 8.7 8.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.2 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 18.3 / 15.7 10.0 / 1.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SD
STL
SD
ML
53% 85-74
51% 85-83
52% 84-77
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 91-77
53% 85-76
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 68-81-10
51% 82-80-6
50% 76-75-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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