Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Diamondbacks LAA @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

29-43  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Jun 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

36-35  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 5.06 -- 1.0 --
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.06 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
60%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
ANGELS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

89.4%

Diamondbacks Cover

10.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

ARI By 1-2 runs

5.4%

ARI By 3-4 runs

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
7
LOS ANGELES
2
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -5.0
B
Sim Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 LAA @ ARI 1 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 LAA @ ARI 7 - 0
Jun 15, 2026 LAA @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 13, 2025 ARI @ LAA 5 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 ARI @ LAA 5 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .720
154
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +28.8% more
Los Angeles: 9.3 vs Arizona: 6.6
Walks (L5) +23.9% more
Los Angeles: 4.2 vs Arizona: 3.2
Total Bases (L5) +14.5% more
Los Angeles: 13.9 vs Arizona: 11.9
Strikeouts (L5) +8.8% more
Los Angeles: 7.9 vs Arizona: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 7.0 3
ARI Score 2.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.3 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.9 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 13.9 12.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.2 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAA
ARI
LAA
ML
54% 87-74
59% 96-66
54% 86-74
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-65
56% 89-71
51% 82-80
TTL
52% 80-73-8
53% 83-74-5
49% 73-77-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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