Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Nationals KC @ WSH

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

29-43  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Jun 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

37-35  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Beck Way
STARTING PITCHER

Beck Way

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Beck Way None-None 6.75 -- 2.0 2
Clayton Beeter None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.75 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
📊
NATIONALS
55%
ROYALS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
KANSAS CITY
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 KC @ WSH 6 - 2
Jun 16, 2026 KC @ WSH 4 - 6
Jun 15, 2026 KC @ WSH 3 - 7
Aug 13, 2025 WSH @ KC 8 - 7
Aug 12, 2025 WSH @ KC 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.718
OPS
▲ .744
170
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +9.4% more
Kansas City: 2.6 vs Washington: 2.3
Home Runs (L5) +121.0% more
Washington: 1.6 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +31.8% more
Washington: 18.1 vs Kansas City: 13.7
Home Runs (Season) +23.5% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 6.0 3
WSH Score 4.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 10.3 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 5.6 10.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 18.1 / 13.7 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
2%MONEY98%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
KC
WSH
KC
ML
57% 92-69
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
TTL
50% 77-78-6
58% 90-64-7
42% 65-90-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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