PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
36-36 | Road
2
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
35-36 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Barnett
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.84 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
| Mason Barnett | None-None | 0.77 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.84
ERA
Ldr 0.77
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
40%
ATHLETICS
60%
PIRATES
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
19.6%
ATH By 1-2 runs
10.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Athletics
2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
PIT @ ATH
12 - 4
Jun 16, 2026
PIT @ ATH
6 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
PIT @ ATH
2 - 11
Sep 21, 2025
ATH @ PIT
0 - 11
Sep 20, 2025
ATH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.734
▲
OPS
.719
186
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
Pittsburgh: 9.7
vs
Athletics: 8.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.9% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Athletics: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Athletics: 71.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.3%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
Athletics: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
2
ATH Score
2.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.8 / 8.1
15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.7
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
21.7 / 13.2
27.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.8 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
PIT
ATH
PIT
ML
59%
95-67
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
ATS
52%
84-78
54%
86-73
50%
81-80
50%
81-82
TTL
54%
84-73-5
47%
72-81-6
42%
66-90-5
50%
79-78-6
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