DETROIT
TIGERSDET
29-42 | Road
9
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
33-40 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 3.82 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 6.66 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.82 Ldr
ERA
6.66
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
55%
ASTROS
45%
TIGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
18.4%
DET By 3-4 runs
19.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
10.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
181
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.1%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
6.0
9
HOU Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.7
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.8
2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.0
18.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 14.9
15.0 / 28.0
Walks
2.6 / 1.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
50%
81-82
54%
86-73
47%
77-87
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
91-72
64%
101-58
55%
90-74
57%
91-69
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-9
45%
69-86-9
46%
69-81-10
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